U.S. lacks strategy to measure enviro impact of biofuels

Major GAO report lists challenges U.S. faces as it aims to boost ethanol output

BY ERIC LIDJI FOR GREENING OF OIL

When you drive through Illinois, premium gasoline is cheaper than regular, the result of subsidies on corn-based ethanol, and a federal mandate to increase ethanol production.

But fully implementing that mandate could increase crop prices, impair water quality and could possibly indirectly increase the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, according to an August 2009 report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office released last fall. And, that mandate may be unachievable without upgrades to the existing infrastructure grid, or a way to make ethanol friendlier to existing engines.

Or not. The uncertainty, the 175-page report notes, comes from the fact that “Except for lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, EPA is currently not required by statute to assess environmental effects to determine what biofuels are eligible for inclusion in the RFS.”

Congress expanded the RFS, or renewable fuel standard, in December 2007, mandating that domestic biofuel production hit 36 billion gallons by 2022, up from 9 billion gallons in 2008. To meet those goals, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Energy are developing biofuels from different sources, like switch grass.

Currently, corn ethanol is the primary source of biofuels in the country, and the increased production of it has helped the U.S. reach about 30 percent of the mandate.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, then chair of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, asked the GAO to look at the possible impacts of that increase in biofuel production, and other challenges of the mandate to expand domestic biofuel production.

Challenges and benefits to mandate

One possible challenge is measuring the environmental impact.

The report claims that increased ethanol production drove up prices for corn.

“At the beginning of the 2007 planting season, the price of corn had reached $3.39 a bushel—a 61 percent increase from just 12 months earlier,” the report notes.

As a result, farmers devoted more acres to corn, instead of soy, wheat or cotton, and feed costs for livestock producers increased. In addition, those higher corn prices, the report suggests, “have likely contributed to domestic and international food price increases.”

The impacts of expanded production remain unclear, though.

“Many experts said increased biofuels production, including advanced biofuels, could significantly affect U.S. agriculture by changing land-use patterns. ... However, the effects are uncertain and will hinge on what energy crop feedstocks are used and whether these feedstocks are grown on existing farmland,” the GAO report concluded.

However, the report also noted that increased ethanol production boosted rural economies, not only for farmers, but also for biorefineries employees. According to the report, the number of ethanol biorefineries in the U.S. increased to 172 from 35 between 1991 and 2008, and each refinery employs more than 50 fulltime workers on average.

This increase in corn production could strain the water supply, the report said, but cellulosic feedstocks require less water and would therefore cause fewer impacts.

Another possible challenge is what is known as the “blend wall.”

Most of the ethanol consumed in this country is blended with traditional gasoline to make either E10, which can be burned in most engines, or E85, which only a limited number of engines can burn. The blend wall is the point when all available gasoline is E10, limiting future expansion.

With the decline in gasoline consumption that accompanied the current economic downturn, the United States may hit that blend wall in 2011, more than a decade before the mandated deadline.

Measuring biofuel GHG emissions

Currently, the Environmental Protection Agency is only required to assess the greenhouse gas emissions from biofuel production when it comes to environmental impacts.

The report notes that there is relative consensus on how to measure the direct effects of biofuels on greenhouse gases, but some disagreement about how to measure the indirect effects that could result from a large-scale change in land use practices.

The GAO recommended that the EPA “develop a strategy to assess lifecycle environmental effects of increased biofuels production” to avoid hitting the blend wall, the GAO recommended giving priority to research and development on “process technologies that produce biofuels that can be used by the existing petroleum-based distribution and storage infrastructure and the current fleet of U.S. vehicles.”

Link of interest

BIOFUELS: Potential Effects and Challenges of Required Increases in Production and Use (full report)

Contact Eric Lidji at ericlidji@mac.com